[delurk]
So do you enter an already-saturated market by making an MMO like World of Warcraft (assuming you would want to, of course)?
To the gambling man, the WoW-like MMO has numbers you can count on. There is a proven audience out there, one that is already buying and well-known.
There is also a well known franchise, with a multi-million strong userbase to
compete against in that corner of the market. Also, when you're talking MMOs, you're competing against a product that is devoting no small development budget toward
continued custom and a game with no distinct end point.
In short, you have to give fans a compelling reason to make the change from something they play and enjoy, and will continue to do so for the forseeable future.
Or do you make something different and hope there is an invisible market out there and current alternative MMO's are simply under-supported?
Which is also a valid criticism. I think the moral to the story is that you'd be a fucking fool to go into MMOG development and/or publishing.
However, the big difference between a MMOG and a conventional computer game, is that a regular game is essentially a consumable product, rather than a sustained consumer service.
It's like the difference between choosing a bank or a phone provider when compared to choosing a movie to watch or a book to read. If you're selling a service, then you're either relying on customer dissatisfaction with their existing provider, or selling your similar service where the incentives to make the change outweigh the perceived inconvenience of doing so.
With MMOGs, you also have to consider that you're essentially dealing with a service that also provides incentives and rewards to loyal customers, ie the virtual gains the player makes through their characters. You're also dealing with a service that the typical user doesn't need multiple instances of. Who has the time or the inclination to play more than one MMOG?
But, let's forget MMOGs, since they're really a market unto themselves. Lets consider the majority of single player games, which are limited in content, and have a distinct ending - therefore a limited lifetime as a viable means of entertainment.
The idea that it's somehow safer to enter a saturated market of polished products, than a neglected market of sub-standard products, is ludicrous. To come to that conclusion, you need to be assuming that purchases of consumers are independent of the current range of games on sale (i.e. deducing the potential market directly from current sales).
This is beyond stupid.
I think that's pretty close to the mark, as always from Galsiah. I'd like to take that wisdom on my usual tangent of production values and the perception of "gaming generations," which seems to me to be utterly ludicrous. Sure, technology is progressing at a ridiculous rate, but it seems a bit fishy to me to consider audiences ten years past as dead and gone, given the average life span of a human being.
Sure, you could argue that the burgeoning production costs of game development require unit sales in the millions, as opposed to the much smaller audiences of ten years ago, but why not turn that on its ear and think about how you can cut production costs? To me that seems like a more reasonable approach than trying to outdo existing blockbusters and established franchises.
I think there is room to keep production values low, and yet still acceptable to many consumers. Is a comparison to movies unreasonable? There is certainly a market for blockbusters (and no shortage of failed big budget releases) and there is also a market for low budget releases. Neither market is exclusive of the other.
In games the markets do become a little more exclusive, since a low budget movie scrimps on special effects and marketing, but can still present the same visual quality, whereas the budget of a game is mostly consistent of cost intensive audio/visual assets, and development and/or licensing of current technology. Therefore, making budgetary cuts would detract from a major selling point, but then again, you've spent a lot less money in the first place, so you don't necessarily need to shift as many units.
The question becomes simply -
How many gamers value substance over style?
Personally, I think there
is a neglected market out there, after all there is a whole generation (literally) of gamers who experienced lo-fi gaming 20 years ago, who are still alive today. They have seen gaming when it had no style crutch to prop itself up on, and the reliance was on substance. There's no shortage of (unpaying) custom for emulators such as DosBox, and more gaming ROMs (also unpaid for) than you can poke a stick at. There are plenty of fan projects attempting to bridge the technical divide between yesterday's games and today's tech.
The biggest problem is not that there is no feasible audience for lo-fi games, it's more the difficulty in getting the message to them. It's hard to sell substance with a few lines on the back of a box, and it's just as hard to drum up a decent buzz from the gaming media, who seem interested in anything but substance.
[/delurk]